Department for Work and Pensions
United Kingdom · Government and public sector · 2026
DWP scores requests for Universal Credit advances in real time with a supervised machine learning classifier and refers the highest risk requests to a caseworker before payment. The caseworker is not told the referral came from the model, a random control group is referred alongside, and every decision to decline is made by a person and can be appealed.
DWP's published effectiveness assessment for April 2025 to March 2026 finds the model 2.5 times more effective than random selection with a median payment delay of one day for approved referrals. It also finds that non UK nationals and several age bands were referred more often without a matching increase in confirmed fraud, and that referrals of couples were less often confirmed than those of single claimants; a retrained model was being tested.
- Detection improvement: 2.5x, 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026
"The performance information for 2025 to 2026 demonstrates the model is 2.5 times more effective at identifying fraud risk than a randomised control group sample."
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